A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
